Wednesday 4 November 2015

Top 5: Comparisons between the Black Caps and Australia


The Three Test Series between Australia and New Zealand begins tomorrow at the Gabba, in a contest that is sure to be not-only even, but hotly contested.

Both teams are vastly different in composition and character to what they have been in the past. 

While the Black Caps have traditionally been underdogs in the Test arena, they now have an exciting and balanced side that has had its talents honed in the more explosive shorter forms of the game.

Australia, on the other hand, seem to be going through their second rebuilding phase following on from the 2005-2015 period that went from success-to-disaster-to-success.
 
Not Success
Both teams are young and exciting and full of vim, but who has the advantage?

I’ve had a look at 5 categories of the game & here are my thoughts:

Fast Bowlers
The most competitive category between the two teams, Australia has strongly depended on a strong bowling attack at home and abroad for its success since the retirement of Adam Gilchrist, Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer etc. 

Thankfully (for Australian fans), the majority of Australian fast bowlers can now bat too, which has helped the team out of some pretty dire situations.

Mitchell Starc is in incredible form of late, you suspect that the South Australian 1st Class and One Day teams are still shaking so badly that you could pick them up on the Richter scale.

Mitchell Johnson is expected to be bowled in short bursts to support Starc and, given his form of…ever, he could produce anything.  Johnson does seem to bowl better at home than away and should be fresh, but who really knows with that bloke.

Given the propensity of Johnson, and to a lesser degree Starc, to be a bit sporadic in their deliveries, it makes sense to bring in a ‘workhorse’ bowler to act like the guy in the S&M club and “tie up an end”.

Peter Siddle is probably the favourate to do so given his experience, efforts in the last Test in England, as well as his track record at the Gabba.  That being said, Mitchell Marsh is a similar bowler, which may change the selectors risk profile for the game & lead them to select the more attacking Josh Hazlewood.

New Zealand are equally strong in the fast-bowling stakes, though rely more on swing than sheer pace, with equally impressive results where the pitch helps. Unfortunately for them, the pitch probably won’t help at The Gabba, so they will need to get wickets with the new ball while it swings.

Trent Boult and Tim Southee tore Australia apart when the 2 teams met at Eden Park during the World Cup, Boult finishing with figures of 10-3-27-5. Frightening.

The ability to replicate that effort would be enough for these two players to win this Test on their own.

Advantage: Australia (just, because of depth)

Batsmen
This is the area where the Black Caps are clearly the better team. 

Australia really only has 2 proven Test Batsmen in the side; Steve Smith and David Warner.  Of those, Warner is often as likely to get out as he is to hit out.

The Australian selectors have taken a massive (and disrespectful) punt by selecting Joe Burns to open and Usman Khawaja to come in at first drop.

Burns certainly looks like he belongs in the Test team, though more as a middle-order bat than an opener.  Khawaja looks like he belongs carrying the drinks, as long as they aren’t too heavy.

Why the selectors didn’t take a punt on more proven First Class performers like Michael Klinger or Callum Ferguson, with either Burns or Khawaja is a bit of a mystery.  

Many thanks to Ric Finlay

The success of selecting Chris Rogers, who had been out of the Test team for sometime but returned from a successful First Class career to forge one of Australia’s best opening partnerships with Warner.

The remaining selected batsmen; Adam Voges and Peter Nevill, are still unproven at Test level while Mitch Marsh appears to be more of a bowling all-rounder than a batsman.

For the lads from the shaky isles, Batting talent and depth is hardly a problem at all.

Brendan McCullum, Martin Guptill and Kane Williamson are three of the best (and most explosive) batsmen in the world, while Tom Latham and Rossco Taylor are both World Class.

Advantage: New Zealand

Spinners
This contest is often the forgotten one when talking about Cricket, but important when talking about Test matches in Australia where all 5 days are often used, resulting in deteriorating pitches.

Mark Craig is a promising young spinner whose forehead is bigger than his off-break. 

That being said, he does have a lot of perseverance and patience, which is needed for an off-spinner in Australia.

Nathan Lyon is often the forgotten man in Australian cricket.  Younger than Craig, he has already played 46 Tests for 162 wickets.

Not a great turner of the ball, Lyon does use flight and bounce (particularly in Australia) cleverly – neither of which Craig seems to have mastered.

Lyon has grown as a bowler in the last few years, gaining confidence from the selectors, his team-mates, the public and himself.  His efforts in Adelaide last summer (12/286) won the match & showed what he could do in a Test match.

Advantage: Australia

Fielding

Both teams are excellent in the field, bringing the skills they have honed in the shorter formats of the game into the Test arena.  Dropped catches are as likely to be seen at the games as this guy.

The comparison of the wicket-keepers is an interesting one to look at. 

BJ Watling is a good wicket-keeper batsman for New Zealand (and formerly South Africa), while Peter Nevill is more of a classical gloveman. 

Nevill is under pressure to score runs in this series as there is seemingly no end of other gloveman in Australia who could step into the Test team.

Latham and McCullum are also both Test-level ‘keepers, so NZ probably have the overall advantage here due to depth.

Advantage: New Zealand

It's Complicated
A complicated category that takes into account culture, leadership, the momentum of the team and other impacts like home-ground advantage.

Much has been made of the enjoyment that the Black Caps team is getting out of playing cricket at the moment, not least under the leadership of brigadier batsman and captain McCullum.

That they are able to enjoy the game this much while the pall of corruption hovers over previous Captain & NZ Cricketing mainstay, Chris Cairns, is truly impressive.

The Kiwis are playing exciting cricket and are clearly enjoying it.  The team has a good mix of youth and experience and are up for the fight.

On the other hand, Australia has recently lost Watto, Rogers, Clarke and Harris.   

Arguably they never had Watto to start with, though he was a good slips fielder.

And Dreamy
Rogers and Harris both leave massive holes in terms of leadership and ability in Test Cricket that won’t be readily plugged by the likes of Burns, Voges, Khawaja or Nevill

Australia’s famous home-ground advantage should come into play, though the level of support the Australian team currently holds with fans, as well as the number of Kiwis living in Australia, should dampen this.

Advantage: New Zealand

Overall:
Australia are treating this series as too much of a warm-up for the future.  While blooding new players is important, it doesn’t need to be done at the expense of success – particularly while the likes of Michael Klinger and Callum Ferguson are available.

New Zealand are in form and won’t be intimidated by this Australian outfit.

The bounce and juiciness of the Gabba pitch will help both sides fast bowlers, but Australia may have the advantage with Lyon.

The second Test in Perth will be a much more even contest, though (again) the bounce may be in Australia’s favour.

For both of these Tests it is unlikely that the Australian batsmen will be able to score enough against the Kiwis, though this is where the depth of NZ bowling attack comes into the question.

The Adelaide Test will be decided by the toss, & the associated impact as to who gets to bat under lights.

Overall, I’m expecting New Zealand to win the series & for at least 2 of Australia’s batsmen (and or Mitchell Marsh) to be dropped be the series end.


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