The Three Test Series between Australia and New Zealand
begins tomorrow at the Gabba, in a contest that is sure to be not-only even,
but hotly contested.
Both teams are vastly different in composition and character
to what they have been in the past.
While the Black Caps have traditionally been underdogs in
the Test arena, they now have an exciting and balanced side that has had its
talents honed in the more explosive shorter forms of the game.
Australia, on the other hand, seem to be going through their
second rebuilding phase following on from the 2005-2015 period that went from
success-to-disaster-to-success.
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| Not Success |
Both teams are young and exciting and full of vim, but who
has the advantage?
I’ve had a look at 5 categories of the game & here are
my thoughts:
Fast Bowlers
The most competitive category between the two teams,
Australia has strongly depended on a strong bowling attack at home and abroad
for its success since the retirement of Adam Gilchrist, Matthew Hayden, Justin
Langer etc.
Thankfully (for Australian fans), the majority of Australian
fast bowlers can now bat too, which has helped the team out of some pretty dire
situations.
Mitchell Starc is in incredible form of late, you suspect
that the South Australian 1st Class and One Day teams are still
shaking so badly that you could pick them up on the Richter scale.
Mitchell Johnson is expected to be bowled in short bursts to
support Starc and, given his form of…ever, he could produce anything. Johnson does seem to bowl better at home than
away and should be fresh, but who really knows with that bloke.
Given the propensity of Johnson, and to a lesser degree
Starc, to be a bit sporadic in their deliveries, it makes sense to bring in a
‘workhorse’ bowler to act like the guy in the S&M club and “tie up an end”.
Peter Siddle is probably the favourate to do so given his
experience, efforts in the last Test in England, as well as his track record at
the Gabba. That being said, Mitchell
Marsh is a similar bowler, which may change the selectors risk profile for the
game & lead them to select the more attacking Josh Hazlewood.
New Zealand are equally strong in the fast-bowling stakes, though
rely more on swing than sheer pace, with equally impressive results where the
pitch helps. Unfortunately for them, the pitch probably won’t help at The
Gabba, so they will need to get wickets with the new ball while it swings.
Trent Boult and Tim Southee tore Australia apart when the 2 teams met at Eden Park during the World Cup, Boult finishing with figures of
10-3-27-5. Frightening.
The ability to replicate that effort would be enough for
these two players to win this Test on their own.
Advantage: Australia (just, because of depth)
Batsmen
This is the area where the Black Caps are clearly the better
team.
Australia really only has 2 proven Test Batsmen in the side;
Steve Smith and David Warner. Of those,
Warner is often as likely to get out as he is to hit out.
The Australian selectors have taken a massive (and
disrespectful) punt by selecting Joe Burns to open and Usman Khawaja to come in
at first drop.
Burns certainly looks like he belongs in the Test team,
though more as a middle-order bat than an opener. Khawaja looks like he belongs carrying the
drinks, as long as they aren’t too heavy.
Why the selectors didn’t take a punt on more proven First
Class performers like Michael Klinger or Callum Ferguson, with either Burns or
Khawaja is a bit of a mystery.
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| Many thanks to Ric Finlay |
The success of selecting Chris Rogers, who had been out of
the Test team for sometime but returned from a successful First Class career to
forge one of Australia’s best opening partnerships with Warner.
The remaining selected batsmen; Adam Voges and Peter Nevill,
are still unproven at Test level while Mitch Marsh appears to be more of a
bowling all-rounder than a batsman.
For the lads from the shaky isles, Batting talent and depth
is hardly a problem at all.
Brendan McCullum, Martin Guptill and Kane Williamson are
three of the best (and most explosive) batsmen in the world, while Tom Latham
and Rossco Taylor are both World Class.
Advantage: New Zealand
Spinners
This contest is often the forgotten one when talking about
Cricket, but important when talking about Test matches in Australia where all 5
days are often used, resulting in deteriorating pitches.
Mark Craig is a promising young spinner whose forehead is
bigger than his off-break.
That being said, he does have a lot of perseverance and
patience, which is needed for an off-spinner in Australia.
Nathan Lyon is often the forgotten man in Australian
cricket. Younger than Craig, he has
already played 46 Tests for 162 wickets.
Not a great turner of the ball, Lyon does use flight and
bounce (particularly in Australia) cleverly – neither of which Craig seems to
have mastered.
Lyon has grown as a bowler in the last few years, gaining
confidence from the selectors, his team-mates, the public and himself. His efforts in Adelaide last summer (12/286)
won the match & showed what he could do in a Test match.
Advantage: Australia
Fielding
Both teams are excellent in the field, bringing the skills
they have honed in the shorter formats of the game into the Test arena. Dropped catches are as likely to be seen at
the games as this guy.
The comparison of the wicket-keepers is an interesting one
to look at.
BJ Watling is a good wicket-keeper batsman for New Zealand
(and formerly South Africa), while Peter Nevill is more of a classical
gloveman.
Nevill is under pressure to score runs in this series as
there is seemingly no end of other gloveman in Australia who could step into
the Test team.
Latham and McCullum are also both Test-level ‘keepers, so NZ
probably have the overall advantage here due to depth.
Advantage: New Zealand
It's Complicated
A complicated category that takes into account culture,
leadership, the momentum of the team and other impacts like home-ground
advantage.
Much has been made of the enjoyment that the Black Caps team
is getting out of playing cricket at the moment, not least under the leadership
of brigadier batsman and captain McCullum.
That they are able to enjoy the game this much while the
pall of corruption hovers over previous Captain & NZ Cricketing mainstay,
Chris Cairns, is truly impressive.
The Kiwis are playing exciting cricket and are clearly enjoying
it. The team has a good mix of youth and
experience and are up for the fight.
On the other hand, Australia has recently lost Watto,
Rogers, Clarke and Harris.
Arguably they
never had Watto to start with, though he was a good slips fielder.
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| And Dreamy |
Rogers and Harris both leave massive holes in terms of
leadership and ability in Test Cricket that won’t be readily plugged by the
likes of Burns, Voges, Khawaja or Nevill
Australia’s famous home-ground advantage should come into
play, though the level of support the Australian team currently holds with
fans, as well as the number of Kiwis living in Australia, should dampen this.
Advantage: New Zealand
Overall:
Australia are treating this series as too much of a warm-up
for the future. While blooding new players
is important, it doesn’t need to be done at the expense of success –
particularly while the likes of Michael Klinger and Callum Ferguson are
available.
New Zealand are in form and won’t be intimidated by this
Australian outfit.
The bounce and juiciness of the Gabba pitch will help both
sides fast bowlers, but Australia may have the advantage with Lyon.
The second Test in Perth will be a much more even contest,
though (again) the bounce may be in Australia’s favour.
For both of these Tests it is unlikely that the Australian
batsmen will be able to score enough against the Kiwis, though this is where
the depth of NZ bowling attack comes into the question.
The Adelaide Test will be decided by the toss, & the
associated impact as to who gets to bat under lights.
Overall, I’m expecting New Zealand to win the series &
for at least 2 of Australia’s batsmen (and or Mitchell Marsh) to be dropped be
the series end.
