Top 5: Lessons from Australian Cricket Debuts

The recent publication by Cricket Australia of the 49 cricketers to have debuted for Australia since 2004 caused little stir in the media or amongst cricket fans, apart from perhaps a few chuckles over some selections and a few wistful reminiscese about performances and what may have been.

There was one, though, dissenting voice from former fast-bowler Rodney Hogg who slammed the list as a travesty and an example of the dire state of Australian cricket, the end of the world and other histrionics.

With this in mind, I decided to take a closer look at the list to see if it really was time to pack a bug-out-bag and head for a bomb shelter, or whether things are ok.

Here is what I found….

The Method:

When looking at the players, I looked at the role they were selected to play, the number of games they played and whether they were successful, unsuccessful or moderately successful.

I also took into account whether their careers were curtailed by injury or the Stuart Law rule (where they are dropped for an existing member of the team, despite good performances).

I also took into account the year in which they made their debut, and whether it was possibly 'too early to tell' whether they had been successful.

Now, much of these categories are subjective, but its my blog and no-one reads it, so I’ll do as I please.   With this in mind, I present my summary.

Please keep in mind that I was a little lax on accurate performance statistics, often rounding total runs scored up or down.  Also, Ashton Agar is highlighted as the first debutante since Darren Lehmann took over as Coach.

The findings:

5. The majority weren’t failures

While 49 players making their debut in ten years may indicate a change-over of nearly half the team every year, the reality is far from true.

42% of the players were classified as ‘Unsuccessful’, meaning 58% (the majority, for those of you not familiar with forks and traffic lights) were acceptable cricketers. 

This takes extra precedence when you take into account that of the ‘Unsuccessful’ players, 2 had their careers curtailed by injury (Shaun Tait and Beau Casson), while 3 are defined as being “Too early to tell” (the resurgent Phillip Hughes, Usman Khawaja and George Bailey) and 1 falls under the Stuart Law rule (Graham Manou).

Graham Manou, right, his Cricinfo profile omits the phrase he may be heard muttering to himself “what might have been”

Taking these 6 players out of the overall count means that the overall Unsuccessful percentage of players moves down to 33%.

4. You can’t Spin bad Spin

The obvious area where selection could be criticised is in the Spin bowling department. Of the players defined as Unsuccessful, 45% are Spin Bowlers. Of these, the average number of matches played is only 2.1, indicating that they either weren’t given much of a go, or shouldn’t have been there at all.

Not naming names

The ineptitude of these players is reinforced when compared with the records of batsmen who were adjudged as Unsuccessful, who averaged 12 matches each.  This figure (12 matches) could also have been higher if not for the inclusion of Rob Quiney (2 matches).

3. I may be being a bit harsh

Using “Moderate” to define a players record is a bit of a cop-out, they either are or they aren’t, but it does allow me to add an element of success in determining how well the selectors performed in the period.

Looking at the players adjudged as moderate is quite telling.  Batsmen and Quick bowlers make up 33% of the total each, contributing over 3,500 runs (from 5 players) and over 200 wickets (also 5 players).  Interestingly, the “Moderate” batsmen played an average of 11.8 Tests, almost identical to the 11.4 played by the Quicks.

Its also important to take into consideration that 4 of the Moderately performed players were unable to take the next step due to injury (Andrew McDonald, Ben Hilfenhaus, Tim Paine and Shaun Marsh), 4 were adjudged “Too early to tell” (Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, James Faulkner and Alex Doolan) and 1 suffered from the Stuart Law Rule (Brad Hodge).

2. May the lessons of the past not be forgotten

Only 15 players that made their debut for Australia before 2009, leaving 34 to debut since then. Of the 15 that made their debut before 2009; 5 were spinners, 4 were Quicks and Batsmen, while there was 1 All-Rounder and 1 ‘Keeper.

More tellingly though, was that only 33% of these were judged Unsuccessful and that 2 of those were Cullen and Tait.  The others were Spinners (Cameron White, Jason Krejza and Dan Cullen).

The consistent trend here?   Unsurprisingly, that selecting players to perform in the Spinnning role that aren’t up to it will not succeed and will not last.  Equally unsurprising is that this applies to all other roles too, though poor spinners seem to get found out sooner rather than later.

Not naming names.

Given the comparably poor level of success experienced by the Australian cricket team in the period of 2004 – 2014, or in particular 2009 – 2013, one could mount an argument for selecting the best team & not simply picking a Spinner to make up the numbers.

Further to this, it is worth noting that continued success appears to be more prevalent where there are fewer debuts.  This is particularly telling when taking into account that only 4 players have made their debut since Darren Lehmann became coach in mid-2013, while others have had their careers resurrected (e.g. Dave Warner, Chris Rogers).

1. Hogg isn’t that bright

Of the players that Cricket Australia has selected in the past 10 years, more than half of them were not Unsuccessful (sorry for the double negative). 

This figure jumps to 66% not being Unsuccessful when the poor Spinners are removed and jumps higher still when players impacted by injury, the Stuart Law rule or who are “Too early to tell” are taken into account.

For the selection years since 2009, 2011 is a real stand-out with 10 debutants in that year alone, or 21% of the total debutants in the 2004-2014 period.  Of these, 4 were adjudged Successful, 3 Not Successful (including Khawaja and Starc) and 3 Moderate. 

The average number of matches for players that made their debut in this year is 13, indicating that many of these players are still going around 3 years later.

In Graham Yallops excellent book “A lamb to the slaughter”, recalling the dreaded 78/79 Ashes series, Hogg is seen as a bit of a mystery.  He takes a record number of wickets for the series, but simply gives up bowling when the mood seems to take him and is generally the stereotype fast bowler (aggressive, short-tempered and a little thick).

Given the accuracy of his comments on team selection, I for one advocate that we listen to the likes of Yallop in future.